The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in September 2024 is 94,800, 2% higher than September 2023 and 9% lower than August 2024, according to HM Revenue & Customs recent UK monthly property transactions.
Looking at the same data on a seasonally adjusted basis, the number of UK residential transactions in September 2024 is 91,820, 9% higher than September 2023 and marginally higher (less than 1%) than August 2024. Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, commented:
“As we move towards the end of the year, it remains upbeat to witness a real transformation within the housing sector with an overall trend of growth.
There are also potential positives hopefully still to come, with strong hints we may see a further dip regarding the base rates next week. However, there are some aspects contained within yesterday’s budget which are extremely disappointing, with first time buyers feeling the brunt, as the current stamp duty threshold is lowered back to £300,000 from next April being an example. Typically, this would mean an additional tax liability of £6,250 for those hoping to get on the housing ladder on a home priced at £425,000.”
Andrew Lloyd, Managing Director at Search Acumen, the property data and insight provider, commented:
“We are encouraged to see the uptick in commercial and residential transaction figures continue this month, sustaining the confidence we have in both markets’ recoveries from a tumultuous period. Despite significant tax rises, yesterday’s budget has at least ended weeks of speculation, providing further stability, with policy affecting the next few years in Government, being set and disclosed.
Rachel Reeves’ plans to get Britain building again will be a key driver for sections of the housing market, with a promise of a significant £5bn investment setting the tone for the months ahead, while the promise of further business rates relief will be welcomed by affected commercial property occupiers. Combined with steady interest rate reductions, we are starting to see a more positive outlook for the industry.
With surer footing and an injection of cash on the way, we want to make sure that the industry is primed and ready for the challenge that lies ahead. Hitting the Government’s steep housing targets will be no mean feat. All different facets of the industry will need to work together to remove roadblocks and ensure that hold ups sales and purchases of land or buildings are not hampered by slow processes and inefficient systems. A crucial part of this journey will be ensuring the use of technology is front and centre. Without it, we won’t find the industry progress nearly as quickly as we’d like.”
Chris Little, Chief Revenue Officer, finova, said that the UK property market “once again stood its ground in September”. He continued:
“…and the sector’s overall health is in robust shape. We are beginning to see the return of sub-5% products into the market, and for those who are willing to dig a little deeper, rates as low as 3% may also be available. In the immediate aftermath of the Autumn Budget, it’s difficult to know how the government’s new policy changes will impact market activity. Nevertheless, affordability is still a sticky issue, and it is our hope that the changes to Stamp Duty will not put a restraint on aspiring homeowners.
As the market prepares for a busier 2025, now is the time to build inroads with borrowers and catch up with old clients. Technology is important – customers expect streamlined processes and instant access – but in the end, it is up to brokers to reach out and ensure that borrowers feel supported as the UK enters a new phase in its economic history.”
Josh Skelding Commercial Director at Fignum, said that the data offers “another positive sign of market recovery”. He added:
“…in line with the two-year high in mortgage approvals. The July rate cut is already having a visible impact on transactions, with September’s figures suggesting that homebuyers are keen to take advantage of these improved borrowing conditions, and commercial investors are likely to follow in their footsteps if rates continue to ease. This year has brought more confidence and flexibility for consumers navigating the buying and selling process, bolstered by stable inflation and improved mortgage deals. Looking ahead, the outlook is still uncertain, with much hinging on the Bank of England’s upcoming rate decisions, and they’ll be cautious not to risk reversing recent progress by cutting rates too aggressively.
While challenges remain, especially given the policy implications from yesterday’s Budget on the buy-to-let sector, there are still deals available with much lower rates than this time last year, setting up a promising close to 2024. As such, lenders must remain agile and lean on technology to compete on rates before year-end, whether that’s leveraging cloud-based solutions or configurable tech to empower buyers to find the best option for their financial needs.”
Anthony Coding, RBC Capital Markets said:
“If we needed further proof that the UK housing market in on an upward trajectory, we got it today. Housing transactions in September 2024 were 9% higher than one year ago, and 1% higher than in August. If yesterday’s budget brings stability rather than volatility, we expect that housing transactions will continue to rise, as the pro-housing pro-growth Labour Party seeks to increase the supply of housing.”
