Analysis by the insurer Aviva indicates that one in every nine homes built in England between 2022 and 2024 was in an area classified as having medium or high flood risk.
Of the 396,602 new homes logged by the Ordnance Survey during the period, 43,937 properties were at risk of flooding (11%), Aviva’s figures suggest. The figure marks an increase from 8% of new homes built in flood risk zones between 2013 and 2022.
Aviva’s analysis, which combines Ordnance Survey address data with the Environment Agency’s National Flood Risk Assessment (NaFRA2), also found that 26% of the new homes built between 2022 and 2024 (101,657 properties) face some level of flood risk today.
The highest numbers of at-risk new homes are in Greater London and Essex, with further concentrations in Lincolnshire, the North West and western regions of England. However, Aviva’s Building Future Communities report, published last October, found that every constituency in Great Britain is projected to have increased flood risk (river, coastal or surface water) in future. In England alone, 69% of constituencies are projected to see an increase of over 25% in the number of properties facing flood risk by mid-century.
“As our analysis shows, too many new homes have been built in higher risk areas,” said Jason Storah, CEO UK & Ireland General Insurance at Aviva.
“It’s particularly worrying that this trend has risen in recent years, just as house building accelerates.
“Importantly, these homes are not protected by the Flood Re scheme, which excludes homes built after 2009 to prevent more new homes being put at risk. Sadly, as the study shows, this simply hasn’t happened.”
The analysis also reveals that new homes are likely to face a greater risk of floods in future than existing properties. Almost a third (30%) of new homes built in the last three years will be at some risk of flooding by 2050, more than the projections for existing properties (one in four).
Graham Brogden is chair of the International Property Flood Resilience Association (IPFRA), the trade body representing the property flood resilience sector. “The research highlights the importance of considering resilience within new developments, particularly where homes are being built in areas exposed to flood risk,” he said.
“Faced with the government’s target of building 1.5 million new homes in this parliament, there is significant pressure on land availability. Where development does take place in areas of identified flood risk, proportionate and well-designed property flood resilience (PFR) measures should form part of the overall approach to managing that risk.
“As standards within the PFR sector continue to mature and become more widely adopted, it is important that resilience is thoughtfully considered as part of a development’s design aligned to the level of risk and delivered in accordance with recognised industry practices.”
Storah agrees. ““We believe there should be a presumption against new developments in high-risk areas in the planning rules, alongside mandatory flood resilience measures in building regulations for new homes in areas at risk,” he said.
“This is particularly important in places where surface water flooding is prevalent, which is more difficult to predict and protect against. Property flood resilience does not have to be expensive, and effective measures can be installed for under £1,000.
“In some areas, it will not be a case of if, but when, a home will flood. The strengthening of rules is crucial to ensuring homes are insurable in the future and to protect house values in areas where flooding is predicted. When flooding already costs the UK economy £6bn, where and how we build new homes is a growth issue.”
He concluded:
“Building new homes and locating them in lower risk areas are not mutually exclusive objectives. We must do both if we are to deliver sustainable economic growth and get ready for the future.”
