Few can be in any doubt that Labour is keen for 1.5 million homes to be built over the next five years. From Labour’s perspective there are no sacred cows, greenbelt will be built on if housing need requires it, and golden rules will drive the provision of social housing.
This is good news for UK housebuilders and all those involved in the supply and sale of new homes. The challenge will be making sure the golden rules facilitate rather than frustrate the building of the 1.5 million new homes Labour believes we need. There is a risk that rather than freeing up greenbelt, the golden rules provide it more protection than it already has…
Greenbelt, golden rules and golden eggs
Labour is keeping the current policy of brownfield first, but believes that brownfield is only part of the answer. Under Labour if brownfield cannot meet the housing need, Greenbelt will be built on, and where it is, a ‘golden rule’ will require the provision of 50% affordable with a focus on social rent, a level we suspect will see home county dwellers choking on their oat lattes and cinnamon buns. Greenbelt will also be used where necessary to provide the additional schools, surgeries and transport links required. A bold goal, but in our view, these golden rules will require such a seismic shift in the perceived value of greenfield land that the number of homes built using these golden rules may be a rare as golden eggs.
Council house revolution
Labour want to deliver a council house revolution, suggesting that the building, in scale, of social housing is vital to reaching the target of 1.5 million homes. We agree with this view. Whilst open market housing volumes are determined by sales rates, social housing volumes are dictated by build rates, but houses cost money to build. The challenge for Labour will be how to fund the revolution. On Monday the Chancellor said the cupboard was bare, on Tuesday the Deputy PM promised to build build build, perhaps today we will be told who will pay pay pay for the revolution.