306,000 homes are currently working their way through the buying process to completion; and increase of 62,250 (26%) on the same time last year leading to predictions of a “bumper” final quarter for 2024 and into 2025.
The latest House Price Index from Zoopla paints a hugely positive picture of the market with the largest sales pipeline the market has seen in four years. The pipeline of sales agreed working through to completion is 30 per cent higher last year with the total value of these homes estimated at £130bn
Supply of property to market has been on the up over the course of 2024. The latest Landmark Property Trends Report shows listings tracking above listing volumes in 2019 – the benchmark for the report and the last time the market might be considered to have been ‘normal’ before the impact of COVID-19 and the ensuing uncertainty. In England and Wales listing volumes were up 6% in Q3 2024 vs Q3 2019. But Sold Subject to Contract (SSTC) numbers and completions continued to be well down on previous years.
Zoopla say momentum in new sales remains strong and looks set to continue into December, supported by the high supply of homes for sale; the property portal is attributing the strength of the market to rising incomes combined with average mortgage rates at their lowest for two years, resulting in the highest level of new sales since late 2020.
The portal added the growth in sales is being driven by a combination of first-time buyers (FTBs) and existing homeowners who have ‘delayed moving decisions until borrowing costs fell and the outlook improved.’ Certainly FTB’s are set to the largest purchaser of homes in 2024, with 36% of all sales, followed by existing homeowners (31%), cash buyers (27%) and landlords buying with a mortgage (7%).
Conveyancers are already bracing themselves for a potential SDLT ‘cliff-edge’ in March; although details of this week’s budget remain relatively unconfirmed, the suspicion is Chancellor Rachel Reeves will not extend the current SDLT relief for FTBs. The current thresholds at which Stamp Duty is due is in England is £425,000. Zoopla estimates currently 80% of FTBs pay no stamp duty. If the thresholds were to return to the previous 2022 levels, at £1250,000 an additional 20% of FTBs would be liable to pay the tax.
Richard Donnell, Executive Director at Zoopla comments:
“It is positive to see the sustained increase in sales activity over 2024 which reflects growing confidence amongst buyers and sellers supported by lower borrowing costs and rising incomes. Overall, the market remains on track for a modest 2% price increase in 2024 and 1.1m sales.
“First-time buyer numbers have recovered as mortgage rates have fallen but a sizeable deposit is still required to buy. Possible changes to stamp duty relief will only create further barriers to ownership for this group who already face significant affordability constraints.
“The housing market doesn’t need short term policy tweaks from the Budget. The health of the housing market and people’s ability to afford housing is linked to the health of the economy. It’s vital the Budget is focused on economic growth and expansion in jobs and rising incomes. The primary focus should be on providing the financial support and investment needed to help build the homes the nation needs for buyers and renters.”
Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark adds:
“We have seen an encouraging transformation across the year in terms of a resilient trend of house price growth. Affordability and overall confidence in the sector have also seen a boost throughout the year so far. Considering the UK Government has an ambitious aim to deliver growth following what has been a turbulent few years, we hope that this week’s Autumn Budget will be used as a springboard to improve housing supply. Propertymark has long argued that Stamp Duty reform is one way to do that, especially for those wishing to downsize.
“When the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meet on Thursday next week, we hope to see further progression on potentially cutting interest rates as this will continue to improve the overall health of the economy.”
