Home movers may be ‘pausing’ ahead of the next budget with sold-subject-to-contract (SSTC) numbers and completions remaining low against the rising number of new listings coming to market. The latest numbers from Landmark’s Q3 Residential Property Trends report suggests despite high levels of supply, and tentative signs of progressed demand at SSTC, buyers are still battling significant market uncertainty and affordability concerns.
The report looks at data across the lifetime of a property transaction from listing, through to SSTC, volume of searches ordered, and completions. Published quarterly, the report benchmarks the latest figures against 2019 numbers; the last time the property market might be considered to have been ‘normal’ before the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Listing numbers are 6% above Q3 2019, but this growing number of properties coming to market is not yet turning into sales with completions down some 42% when compared with 2019 numbers. Economic and political uncertainty has undoubtedly impacted the market throughout 2024; these latest figures suggest many are awaiting the outcome of October’s budget before committing to property purchases.
“Our Q3 trends data reflects the ongoing external economic and political turbulence causing affordability constraints and buyer caution, as home-movers pause ahead of the Budget to wait for more favourable interest rates.”
said Simon Brown, CEO of Landmark Information Group
The strong level of supply is a positive indicator for the market, but without addressing the ongoing affordability challenges and the systemic inefficiencies in the transaction process, we will continue to see a gap between supply and completions. We are approaching a critical moment for the new Government, and this is a key opportunity for the new Housing Minister and industry stakeholders to work together to streamline the home-moving process and mobilise buyers as the market shows signs of recovery.”
SSTC numbers have remained relatively flat between Q2 2024 and Q3 2024, dipping only slightly by 5%, with a slow upward trajectory over the summer. From Jul 2024 to September 2024 there was an increase of 7% – possibly the result of a post-election bounce – but they remain 37% in Q3 2024 when compared to Q3 2019. Search order volumes were similarly down 35% in Q3 2024 against Q3 2019 levels.
Interestingly, the report also covers Scotland where similar market dynamics has seen the same 6% uplift in listings with a much smaller drop off in completion rates; 13% against 42% in England and Wales. There are, say Landmark, learnings to be taken from Scotland’s ‘more efficient home-moving market, which fosters greater consumer confidence and certainty.’
In England and Wales ongoing inefficiencies in the home buying and selling process,, alongside affordability concerns, remain critical barriers to completion levels returning to expected levels. Concluding, the group says the numbers paint a ‘clear picture of a buyers’ market’ where, despite high levels of supply, and tentative signs of progressed demand at SSTC, buyers are still battling significant market uncertainty and affordability concerns – explaining the low level of completions.
