Transactions remain above pre-pandemic levels despite slower September

The number of transactions slowed in September yet remained comfortably above pre-pandemic levels, the latest data from HM Land Registry (HMLR) has revealed.

The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of UK residential transactions in September 2022 is 112,370, which represents a 1.8% decrease from levels seen in August.

Yet, compared with the 99,570 transactions seen in September 2019, the market as of September still gives the impression of one that is lively and yet to succumb to the undoubtable economic pressures facing homemovers and businesses.

Figures also remain broadly in line with or above historical levels going back further, as shown by the below graph.

Commenting on the figures was Simon McCulloch, Chief Commercial & Growth Officer at Smoove, who said:

“The flat rate of property transactions is to be expected, with the market turbulence we saw after the ‘Mini Budget’ at the end of September unlikely to be fully reflected in the figures. The ripple effect of lenders pulling mortgage products near the end of last month, combined with steadily rising inflation and rates, will likely be seen in next month’s figures. Yesterday’s announcement of prime minister Liz Truss’ resignation will also cause some uncertainty in the short-term.”

Andy Sommerville, Director at Search Acumen, added:

“As buyers rush to complete off the back of existing mortgage offers, transaction times have never been in sharper focus. This morning’s property transactions figures show a steadying of volume across September, as conveyancers continue the mammoth task of completing on homes from the summer property boom. However, the need for speed feels especially acute after some 1,000 mortgage deals were removed from sale by lenders last month, following the chaotic mini-budget.

As the political and economic climate remains unsteady and house prices start to soften, the pendulum is swinging towards a buyers’ market. The shifting dynamics of the property market may in turn increase pressure on conveyancers to not just beat expiring borrowing offers, but also to exchange before Christmas. It’s no longer the buyer with the highest offer who wins, but the buyer with the fewest complications in fear of protracted transactions and higher risks. While HMLR reassuringly reports a continuation in monthly transaction volumes, it will be an uphill battle to maintain this trajectory as reports of chains collapsing and sellers withdrawing become the new normal.”

Imagery source: HM Land Registry

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