Property bubble refuses to burst amid growing desire to move

Property bubble refuses to burst amid growing desire to move

The property market is defying all odds and continues to run hot with 10% more households indicating a desire to move now than in April.

According to the Q2 2022 Property & Homemover Report from TwentyCi, 402,011 households are currently considering a house move compared to 365,873 in April 2022. In addition, the number of households moving soon has also increased by 6% from 328,640 in April to 348,840 today.

Colin Bradshaw, TwentyCi’s Managing Director, said:

“Our previous observation that the owner-occupied sector appears to be detached from the woes that are befalling the wider economy continues to hold true. Transactional levels remain greater than 2019 and we are yet to see a sharp re calibration of the residential property market in either price or volume. The supply side issue of the right stock at the right price persists and buyers and sellers are desperate to keep chains intact or indeed willing to break chains to keep their buyer or seller happy. How much longer can it last? Perhaps this is now the new normal.”

Key indicators

Sales agreed have risen by 10% since Q2 2019, and exchanges have jumped by almost 14%, highlighting the surge in activity that occurred throughout the pandemic.

April to July 2022 saw 358,149 sales and with this level of sustained activity, volumes remain on track for 1.2 million transactions in 2022. Inner and outer London have both seen a recovery in sales agreed (28% and 16% respectively) since the historic lows experienced during Covid.

In contrast, new instructions are down by nearly 6% compared to Q2 2019, indicating that a strong sellers’ market still persists. Without a significant uplift in the volume of new instructions, the residential property market is at risk of significant slowdown later in 2022. This is also reflected by the huge reduction (-45% year on year) in the number of price changes. Home sellers can now command close to the asking price for their property, with no need to discount. Withdrawal is also down by 35% as sellers can achieve a quicker sale than in prior years negating the need to remain in their existing property.

Property stock 

Property stock levels are slowly rising but are still down by almost half on historical norms. Aside from inner london, the whole of England and Wales has around two months’ worth of property stock left to sell.

Average asking prices 

The average asking price across the UK is now £433,000 compared to £360,000 in Q2 2019, an increase of nearly 20%. High prices are being maintained by the lack of property stock coming to the market.

All regions of the UK have benefited from the increase in property asking prices with the lower performance of inner & outer London a direct consequence of the impact of the pandemic. Wales has experienced the highest price rises with an average increase of 29%.

Sales by region 

Sales agreed across the whole of the United Kingdom for Q2 2022 are now on average 10% greater than Q2 2019, highlighting the continued high level of transactions that persists. With a 28% increase in sales agreed, inner London has experienced a significant rebound compared to the start of the pandemic.

Read the full report here.

Jamie Lennox

Content Editor. Contact: [email protected] Twitter: @JamieLennoxTM

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