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ONS house price inflation figures are sign of market rebalancing – ‘demand remains strong’

UK annual house price inflation slowed in April, for the first time since December 2023. Average UK house prices increased by 3.5% in the 12 months to April 2025 – down from 7.0% in the 12 months to March.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) attributes the fall to the stamp duty changes, and said a similar pattern was observed in autumn 2021 when average prices increased before stamp duty changes in October 2021.

Across the regions, annual house price inflation remains highest in the North East, at 6.4% – down from 15.3% in the 12 months to March 2025. It was lowest in the South West, at just 0.9%, down from 5.9% the previous month. London was the only English region where the rate was higher in April than March, with 3.3% and 0.9% respectively.

Bar chart showing regional house price inflation figures

The average house price in England is now £286,000, up 3.0% from a year earlier and a lower annual rise than the 12 months to March (7.3%). In Wales, a 5.3% rise takes the average price to £210,000 (up from 4.3% in March). The average house price for Scotland was £191,000 in April 2025, up 5.8% from a year earlier and higher than the 12 months to March (5.2%). In Northern Ireland, the average house price was £185,000 in Q1 of 2025, up 9.5% on Q1 2024.

Monthly seasonally adjusted figures show a UK-wide drop of 2.8% since April. Prices in England fell by 3.6%, with a 0.4% drop in Wales and 0.8% reduction in Scotland. Regionally, the largest drop was seen in the North East, with 7.4%, followed by the North West (5.7%) and Yorkshire and Humber (5.5%). Only London saw a monthly rise, up 2.3% from March.

Property experts weren’t too worried about the slowdown, attributing it to the ongoing impact of stamp duty changes. ‘The headline figuremasks the true story of a market showing underlying strength and resilience’, said The Guild of Property Professionals CEO Iain McKenzie. ‘The fundamentals for a healthy housing market are not only in place but are improving’.

He added:

“Demand remains and is growing, with Zoopla reporting the number of sales agreed in May reached a four-year high. While this demand is being met by a 13% increase in the supply of homes for sale, this is a positive development. It creates a more balanced and sustainable market, giving buyers greater choice and keeping prices in check. It’s a sign of health, not weakness.

 “The stamp duty rush created a temporary statistical blip. The market has now digested those changes and is returning to a strong, sustainable rhythm. With steady demand, improving affordability, and more choice for buyers, the UK housing market is on a very firm footing for the rest of 2025.”

Verona Frankish, CEO of Yopa, said the market is simply correcting itself:

“A 2.7% monthly reduction is quite a significant drop in sold price values but it’s important to note that today’s figures relate to market performance in April, directly following the stamp duty deadline on 31st March.

“Therefore, what we’re seeing is a brief market correction, most likely driven by those who missed the deadline renegotiating in order to account for the increased cost of purchasing.”

Director of Benham and Reeves Marc von Grundherr pointed out long-term figures are more accurate than monthly numbers:

“Whilst the monthly rate of growth declined in the month following the stamp duty deadline, we’ve still seen positive movement on an annual basis and this long term measure is a far more accurate view of overall market health.

“In the months that have followed, we’ve seen buyers and sellers push on with their plans to move and so any initial reduction in house prices as a result of the stamp duty deadline will have been short lived.”

Richard Donnell, executive director of research at Zoopla, believes growth will slow further:

“The big decline in the rate of house price inflation reflects the ending of the stamp duty holiday which is now filtering through into slower price growth. We expect the rate of price growth to slow further over 2025 as home buyers face a large choice of homes for sale which will support a buyers market. Home prices in the midlands, northern England and Scotland will continue to rise more quickly than across southern England where affordability is a drag on price rises.”

Propertymark CEO Nathan Emerson said that trends in the first half of 2025 have been very different to those usually seen:

“We had the effect of Stamp Duty threshold changes across England and Northern Ireland completely alter consumer habits. The housing market witnessed a sizable uplift in both mortgage approvals and property transactions, as many people looked to complete on their house purchase, leading towards the start of April.

“As we progress further into the traditionally busy summer period, we are likely to see momentum regarding house prices; however, this will likely depend on consumer affordability and confidence. Many people will rightly be closely watching the Bank of England, as they make their next decision on the base rate tomorrow afternoon.”

But Movera CEO Nick Hale said the drop creates tension across the homebuying chain that will have an impact on conveyancers:

“It prolongs the Bank of England’s caution, pushes out the prospect of cheaper mortgages, and increases the likelihood of a ‘higher-for-longer’ rate environment — even as the housing market shows early signs of recovery.

“This creates a tension across the homebuying chain: activity is up, listings are strong, and Q1 GDP growth offered a glimmer of optimism — but the financial foundations are still fragile. For buyers, a shifting rate outlook can undo months of planning in a single day. For conveyancers, it means more recalculations and renegotiations — especially where affordability is already stretched.”

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