Demand is returning to normal after the March rush to complete house sales before the Stamp Duty (SDLT) deadline, according to the latest Halifax House Price Index. In a sign of market volumes, the lender said more customers completed sales in March than in January and February combined. However, Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages at Halifax, said new applications are slowing now that SDLT has returned to the previous thresholds.
Bryden anticipates a ‘modest’ rise in activity as borrowers continue to adjust to the new normal of ‘higher borrowing costs, a limited supply of available properties to choose from, and an uncertain economic outlook.’ However, she adds that with ‘further base rate cuts anticipated alongside positive wage growth, mortgage affordability should continue to improve gradually, and therefore we still expect a modest rise in house prices this year’.
Despite the slowdown, Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals, is optimistic about future demand. He commented:
“It’s encouraging to see the market finding a more stable footing. While the headline ‘stabilisation’ might sound muted, beneath the surface, the market fundamentals remain remarkably resilient. The transaction levels we saw in the first quarter demonstrate persistent buyer appetite, particularly as stamp duty deadlines spurred activity.
Crucially, demand hasn’t evaporated; it’s shifting, with renewed interest in larger family homes driving steady underlying price growth in that segment, even as overall headline growth moderates. Yes, the economic backdrop with sticky inflation and revised growth forecasts requires vigilance, and the surge in supply creates a competitive landscape.
However, this increased choice is actually healthy, preventing overheating and providing opportunities. Mortgage approvals holding strong year-on-year signals continued intent. We anticipate sales volumes adjusting towards their long-term average in 2025, suggesting a sustainable market rather than a boom or bust scenario. Stability, coupled with robust activity, is precisely the environment where experienced agents can guide buyers and sellers effectively.”
Overall, house prices fell by 0.5% in March, while the annual growth rate remained steady at +2.8%. The typical UK property is now valued at £296,699.
Although Propertymark CEO Nathan Emerson said the fall would come as ‘a huge disappointment’ for sellers, he acknowledges it also offers opportunities for aspiring homeowners and could even provide a seasonal boost:
“Hopefully this month on month dip is only temporary. The spring and summer months normally spur on a flurry in housing activity, especially at a time when there are many competitive mortgage deals out there right now as a result of the reduction in interest rates last year.”
The negotiating power of buyers in favourable positions points to continued confidence and an upwards trajectory, according to Gareth Samples, CEO of the Property Franchise Group. He explained:
“The stabilisation of house prices reflects a maturing market, where increased supply and steady demand are creating a more balanced environment for buyers and sellers alike.
“With competition at its highest level in a decade and more homes available than in recent years, buyers have greater negotiating power, leading to price sensitivity. However, the sustained level of transactions and mortgage approvals signals continued confidence in the housing market. As interest rates remain stable and economic conditions evolve, we anticipate a measured yet positive trajectory for the market throughout 2025.”
Despite the overall dip and slow growth in London (1.1%, down from 1.5% in February), the rest of the UK fared favourably in March. Northern Ireland saw the strongest growth at 6.6%, with Scotland at 4.3%, England, Yorkshire and Humberside at 4.2%, and Wales at 3.7%.
Jonathan Samuels, CEO of Octane Capital, predicts continued gains in the coming months:
“We’ve seen considerable improvements to the mortgage landscape over the last 12 months and this has driven a heightened degree of buyer activity, which in turn, has ensured that house price growth has remained strong and stable, with property values up on both a quarterly and annual basis.
This positive rate of appreciation has come despite the wider economic headwinds blowing in from the United States and elsewhere around the world, with the expectation being that the UK property market will continue to march forward undeterred.”
And, while events in the US are undoubtedly causing economic uncertainty, Benham and Reeves director Marc von Grundherr believes there’s no cause for concern when it comes to housing:
“The property market remains fighting fit despite the wider economic turbulence faced on numerous fronts, not least from Trump and his tariff war, and whilst we may see the odd monthly adjustment, the real proof in the pudding is a robust level of annual growth.
“So whilst homeowners could find that the cost of some imported US items might rise should the UK government take a tit for tat approach towards Trump, it could result in a swifter reduction in mortgage rates if inflation remain stubbornly persistent and the Bank of England moves to curb it with a hastened schedule of interest rate cuts.”
