November housing transactions demonstrated an element of seasonality with a strong end to 2024 on the cards. Despite a slow start to the year, the non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in November 2024 is 104,440, 19% higher than November 2023 and 6% lower than October 2024.
“With more competitive interest rates than this time last year, growing numbers of homes coming to the market, and a rush from many buyers and sellers to beat the rises to Stamp Duty commencing from April 2025 in England and Northern Ireland, the overall mix of market conditions has inspired many and, in numerous cases, provided the extra confidence and affordability people were waiting for to make their first or next house move.”
said Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, adding:
“We anticipate a busier than normal first quarter of 2025. However, activity will likely settle back down to more expected levels, allowing people to comprehensively review the market and negotiate their next move without the pressure of a stamp duty deadline.”
The estate agency membership body released its Housing Insights Report last week in which it claimed the first few months of 2025 are likely to ‘prove busy for the sales market, with stock coming to the market and consumers showing they are keen to stay ahead of Stamp Duty threshold changes due in England and Northern Ireland in April 2025.’
The market appears to be caught between waiting for Bank of England base rate cuts, and the Stamp Duty reliefs for first time buyers, says Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals.
“Many prospective buyers were waiting for mortgage rates to fall further before making their move, however, the impending Stamp Duty deadline has spurred them to act sooner. Historically the lead up to a Stamp Duty change has generally created an increase of activity, and this time is no different. Despite a less-than-ideal start, the housing market proved resilient and finished 2024 strongly. This year the housing market has started in a much stronger position with more choice for buyers and a strong sales pipeline.
“If the Bank of England decides to cut the rate in February, it will be a further shot in the arm for the market. Rates cuts are on the card for 2025, but how many is still up for debate. While some economists are expecting at least four rate cuts, the financial markets are currently pricing in just two. Interest rate cuts should have a knock-on effect on mortgage rates, improving affordability and stimulating market activity.”
There is positivity heading into 2025 with Rightmove saying Boxing Day 2024 was it’s busiest ever, with the number of new properties coming to the market for sale 26% higher than the previous record set on Boxing Day 2023. Lots of property for sale drove total buyer demand, measured by the number of enquiries sent to estate agents about homes for sale, up 20% year on year said the portal.
“Transactions continued at pace in November in both residential and commercial property markets as buyers rushed to close deals ahead of spring’s upcoming stamp duty adjustment, although not at the speed we saw in October. This combined late surge in activity at the end of the year also opens the possibility for a strong start to 2025, if transaction processing can keep pace with the increased demand and not be hindered by avoidable delays or backlogs.”
said Andrew Lloyd, Managing Director at Search Acumen, adding:
“It’s especially pleasing to see that this end of year momentum proved resilient to the immediate effects of a controversial Autumn Budget and sticky, property-constraining interest rates that refuse to drop at the rate buyers would have hoped. In commercial real estate, the success stories at the tail end of 2024 were the retail and leisure sectors, but as the office market has still not fully recovered we saw an overall dip in figures. It is evident that the last thing the property industry needs in this macroeconomic climate are further hurdles blocking deal flows.”
“To unlock the full potential of this recent bump in buyer activity, archaic elements of the transaction process must be modernised to better serve those that rely on it, leveraging technology and automation so that we can be far more resilient during pinch points such as these.”
