An analysis of government data by legal and property tech company Search Acumen reveals the number of planning permissions granted for major residential developments in England has declined by as much as 43% within the last decade.
In 2024, 3,744 major residential developments were granted planning permission – significantly lower than peaks seen in 2016 (6,617 granted, a decline of 43%), 2017 (6,455, -42%) and 2018 (6,304, -41%).
The planning figures have been shared by Search Acumen as part of an analysis of affordable housing, which suggests there was a potential shortfall of 297,000 affordable and social homes in 2024. The figure has been assessed by establishing the number of new additional social homes being delivered in England (26,705) and the change in the non-working population (an increase of 323,311).
The calculations – made using data from the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) and the Labour Force Survey from the Office for National Statistics – suggest social housing need is outpacing delivery by 12 to one.
And, whilst the data available on social housing focuses on England against a broader UK population comparison, Search Acumen says the research is indicative of wider concerning trends of the housing crisis faced by the current government.
‘Our research looks at trends as to whether we are building enough homes fast enough’, explained Andrew Lloyd, managing director at Search Acumen.
“We know the answer of this to be no, but what is troubling is just how far behind we really are. In England, there were approximately 4.5 million social homes, down from 5.5 million in 1979 thanks to long-term losses in demolitions, conversions, and inadequate rebuilding. Looking at social rent alone, over the past decade there was a net loss of 177,500 homes in England, meanwhile the waiting list climbed to 1.33 million households last year up 10% since 2022.
“Forecasts suggest this could rise to two million households by 2034 if social homebuilding stays unchanged. With a growing base of people not working, the mismatch between supply and demand is acute.”
The combination of the growing gap between need and delivery and the steep drop in planning permissions means there is an acute need for housing providers to navigate issues around profitability and private demand, Lloyd warns.
“I believe this is an inflection point for the sector. Post-war we saw government funded local authorities creating a housing boom – something we are about to see again under Labour, driven by social need not private enterprise. Whilst the working population rate is declining against a general ageing population that is demanding more of social care, it begs the question: where will people live.
“As the commercial viability of building large scale developments is coming under more and more scrutiny with the end of Help-to-Buy and ever-tightening profit margins, the social housing need must be met instead by the public sector. Whilst it is socially responsible to build affordable homes, it may not be profitable – this means the government have a duty to act with more funded schemes likely to fill the void.”
The result, Lloyd predicts, will be a social housing boom that could be seen as early as the end of this year – and he advises property lawyers to be prepared. With data from Search Acumen’s Conveyancing Market Tracker showing a 12% decrease in active real estate law firms over the last 10 years and a 21% increase in case loads over the same period, Lloyd says technology will be essential to allow firms to ‘do more with less’.
He concluded:
“Lawyers on both side of the transaction must use technology to plug the gap, there’s no doubt about it. To work on social housing caseloads means high volume and low margins, where AI tools become business critical for lawyers to win at tender.
“Simply put, technology is the only way we are going to be able to deliver any large quality of houses at pace and within the current government.”
