Property fall throughs on the rise – analysis

Analysis of property market withdrawals and fall through suggests both are on the up in the first half of 2024. A fall-through is generally considered to be a property transaction that collapses after an offer has already been made and accepted. Meanwhile, a withdrawal refers to instances where a seller decides to remove their property from the market at any point after being listed, perhaps because they’ve not received enough buyer interest, or are struggling to achieve their desired asking price.

Material information and digital property pack provider Moverly have estimated the number of fall throughs and withdrawals on a quarterly basis between Q1 2023 and Q2 2024.

Period Est number of fall throughs Est number withdrawn
Q1 2023 62,299 170,653
Q2 2023 68,084 171,055
Q3 2023 78,623 195,252
Q4 2023 60,722 200,452
Q1 2024 64,865 183,449
Q2 2024 76,619 187,262
Q change % 18.10% 2.10%
Annual Q change % 12.50% 9.50%

The data suggests the number of property transactions subject to a fall through has increased by 18.1% on a quarterly basis. It also suggests withdrawals remain the single largest ‘problem’ for the housing market, says Moverly.

In Q2 2024, 76,619 property transactions fell-through, marking a quarterly increase of 18.1%, and an annual rise of 12.5%. Despite a much smaller percentage rise in withdrawals – quarterly increase of 2.1%, and an annual rise of 9.5% –  the absolute numbers show the scale of the issue. In Q2 2024 there were an estimated 187,262 withdrawals, equivalent to 2.4 withdrawals for every fall-through.

But there is some positive news on the horizon, says Gemma Young, Moverly CEO, who suggests the documented increase in the number of properties coming to market is an indicator of market momentum building.

“Although a hold on interest rates since September last year has helped to steady the economic outlook, homebuyers are continuing to struggle with far higher interest rates than they’ve previously become accustomed to. So it’s hardly surprising that we’ve seen a sharp uplift in the number of sales falling through, as the market continues to suffer from the instability caused by the higher cost of borrowing.

“At the same time, a great deal of sellers are choosing to withdraw from the market and this is no doubt due to the fact that they simply aren’t gaining the interest required or at the price point they expected. Previous research of ours has shown that a common reason for homes struggling to find buyers is a misaligned pricing strategy, so accurate and reasonable valuation is always essential.”

Simpler still, sales can be sped up and the chances of attracting a good buyer with a good offer increased by ensuring that they are supplied with all of the vital information they require to make a buying decision. The good news is that the market has certainly turned a corner and during Q3, in particular, we’ve seen a notable uplift in buyers entering the market. With market momentum starting to build, there’s a good chance that we could see a reduction in fall through rates during the second half of this year and, with more buyers entering the fray, we should see less sellers taking the decision to withdraw as well.”

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