The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided on July 31 to reduce the Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing it to five per cent.
This decision was narrowly reached with a vote of 5–4, signaling a continued restrictive stance on monetary policy but a cautious easing as inflation shows signs of stabilizing. The MPC’s approach, aimed at sustaining the UK economy while keeping inflation around the 2% target, reflects a balancing act between encouraging growth and managing persistent inflationary pressures.
The decision to lower the Bank Rate comes amid evidence that inflation is stabilizing. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation met the MPC’s 2% target in both May and June, but is expected to rise to approximately 2.75% later in the year. This anticipated increase reflects the fading impact of last year’s energy price declines, which had previously moderated headline inflation. Despite this predicted uptick, the MPC expressed confidence that ongoing measures would help steer inflation toward the 2% target sustainably.
‘Overseas and home’ events have been cited as ‘having an impact’ on the base rate with Rightmove’s Matt Smith saying the ‘UK Mortgage market remains competitive’.
Rightmove’s mortgage expert, Matt Smith, says:
“This Base Rate decision comes at the end of a run of important macro-economic and political events on both sides of the Atlantic. All of this has resulted in a view that Base Rate will be cut at a more moderated pace than previously expected and has been priced in by lenders. Therefore we are likely to see average mortgage rates drift up a little in the short term, before starting to fall back again.”
“Today’s decision will probably help relieve pressure on lenders to increase rates as we had started to see. If the last few weeks has taught us anything, it is that the UK mortgage market remains competitive, but headline pricing will continue to be impacted by events both in the UK and overseas”
After a period of remaining frozen activity was seen after the last bank cut, with Rightmove’s property expert Tim Bannister stating that the company will be ‘tracking the reaction’ to today’s cut.
Tim Bannister, Rightmove’s property expert said:
“After the last Bank Rate cut, we saw a surge in home-moving activity, as mortgage rates trickled down and those home-movers looking for signs that rates might ease further were given confidence to get moving. We’ll be tracking the reaction to today’s cut, but we may see a more muted response, particularly as the cut has been widely expected and we’re heading into a traditionally quieter period for the market. However, even if we don’t see an immediate boost in activity, today’s news should support the optimism that we’re heading in the right direction, and that affordability will continue to improve in 2025.”