Property momentum is building to deliver c.1.15m property transactions with both Rightmove and Zoopla predicting a 5% uplift on volumes over the course of 2025. Zoopla’s latest House Price Index indicates double digit growth across key measures of demand and supply alongside a strong start to 2025 according to HMRC’s latest transaction stats.
HMRC’s latest transaction data suggests January 2025 has started brightly, despite a slight dip on December 2024’s numbers; seasonally adjusted transaction numbers of 95,110 is less than 1% lower than December, and represents a 14% uplift on January 2024.
Zoopla themselves say buyer demand, the number of sales agreed, the number of properties coming to market, and stock levels are all up 10-11% year on year. Nationwide’s latest House Price Index, published in the same week, identified the second half of 2024 saw a 14% increase in transaction volumes against the same period in 2023, suggesting a swing in momentum despite the economic headwinds. But, say the building society, there could be a dip in the volumes after March at the end of the current stamp duty reliefs for first time buyers.
“Looking ahead, the changes to stamp duty at the start of April are likely to generate volatility in transactions in the near term, as buyers bring forward their purchases to avoid the additional tax. This will likely lead to a jump in transactions in March, and a corresponding period of weakness in the following months, as occurred in the wake of previous stamp duty changes.”
said Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s Chief Economist.
Zoopla’s Executive Director Richard Donnell said its reported increases in home mover sentiment reflects wider economic confidence including ‘robust earnings growth, higher retail sales and signs that consumer confidence is on the rise’
“Property transactions have rebounded on increased market activity and a return to house price growth over 2024. This momentum is spilling over into 2025 as shown by the latest transactions data for January 2025 up 23% on 2024. Property transactions will continue to increase as Zoopla’s leading indicators of market activity are 10 to 11% higher than a year ago. Residential transactions are expected to be 5% higher over 2025 reaching 1.15m. There is an extra surge of sales working their way through the pipeline as buyers rush to beat the stamp duty deadline in a months time with extra pressure on the conveyancing industry to deliver for home buyers.”
2024 certainly saw an increase in transaction volumes but are not yet at the levels seen in 2022. And taking 2024 as a whole, transactions are still around 6% lower than transaction volumes in the year before the pandemic.
On the latest HMRC figures, Andrew Lloyd, Managing Director at Search Acumen, comments
“A typical slow start to the year should not detract from the fact that the recovery in the UK real estate market which kicked off last year continues to drive transactions in a positive direction.
“Against a less-than-optimal macroeconomic backdrop, with low growth and inflation fears heralding turbulence in the horizon, the start to 2025 is nonetheless seeing a lot of promise in the residential and commercial real estate sectors. In the housing market especially, the pending Stamp Duty deadline continues to put pressure on buyers to get transactions over the line.
To allow this stimulus to translate into sustained increases in property transactions, we need friction-free deal flows, but our current transaction processes are notoriously archaic and unnecessarily time consuming. Digital solutions will help boost activity in the housing market and unlock the remaining barriers to growth.”
Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, added
“Upcoming threshold changes regarding Stamp Duty for those buying in England and Northern Ireland will no doubt have had people aiming to complete with a higher degree of urgency than normal on their new home before the April deadline.
“Overall, the figures represent an encouraging underpinning for the housing sector as we head further into 2025, with a strong uplift in housing transactions year on year and with interest rates sitting markedly lower than twelve months back, there is a solid base for growth as the year progresses. “However, there are still challenges to overcome and we are keen to see government home building plans from across all corners of the UK implemented to help ease housing shortages and make housing more affordable in the long-term across many regions.”
