HMRC’s provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions for September has seen a year-on-year rise of 4%, to 95,980, which represents a 1% increase on August’s figures. The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate is 102,420, 8% higher than the same period last year and 2% lower than August.
Seasonally adjusted non-residential transactions have seen a decrease, with figures for September 2025 less than 1% lower than August 2025 and 4% lower than in September 2024. Non-seasonally adjusted non-residential transactions are 12% higher relative to August 2025.
Commentary
Iain Mckenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals:
“The latest transaction data offers a reassuring sign that confidence is steadily returning to the housing market. This growth, coupled with a nine-month high in mortgage approvals and a further easing in borrowing rates, points to a market that is quietly regaining momentum.
“Even though many are taking a cautious stance ahead of the Autumn Budget, buyers are responding to improving affordability and more stable mortgage conditions. The Bank of England’s rate cuts have helped to unlock activity, while the increase in available stock and more realistic pricing are creating a healthier balance between supply and demand.
“While uncertainty remains around future fiscal policy, the fundamentals are encouraging. Provided there are no major policy shocks, we expect steady progress to continue through the end of the year and into early 2026, with regional markets performing in line with local affordability dynamics.”
Nick Hale, CEO at Movera:
“Another strong month in property sales ahead of the autumn budget suggests that confidence is returning to the housing market, even amid continued uncertainty.
“This rise in seasonally adjusted transactions may reflect growing optimism around recent mortgage rate cuts and a sense that the worst of the slowdown is behind us. However, with the Budget now on the immediate horizon, many will still be waiting to see what clarity the Chancellor brings on property taxation and wider economic policy. Brokers and conveyancers should capitalise on this renewed momentum, ensuring that deals in progress reach completion before any post-Budget market shifts.”
Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla:
“Housing transactions are 4% higher, reflecting the steady rebound in buyer demand and sales agreed over the last 12 months.The housing market has the biggest pipeline of sales for four years with 350,000 homes working their way to completion.
“We expect transactions to start to plateau now they are back in line with the long run average of 1.2m sales a year. Budget uncertainty is starting to hit new sales agreed over £500,000 which will limit further growth in sales over 2026 unless the chancellor makes a bold move such as cutting stamp duty in the budget which would boost sales.”
Joe Pepper, UK CEO, PEXA:
“A rise in transactions is a strong indication that affordability is improving and that the market is increasingly meeting the needs of home buyers. It is a sign that the measures being introduced to help improve affordability like the changes to the LTI cap are taking effect – a win for both borrowers and the economy.
“This trend will likely continue in next month’s figures too as first time buyers look to push their transaction over the line before any changes to the inheritance tax thresholds rumoured to be announced in the budget that could well limit the support they can get from the Bank of Mum and Dad.”
Andrew Lloyd, managing director at Search Acumen:
“Today’s data shows that homebuyers are continuing to exchange from deals likely arranged in the early part of the year. A steady level of these transactions, up slightly from the usual summer lull, represents a broadly stable residential market. But this is just half a story, with a sharp drop in current buyer activity pre-budget likely to impact transactional data towards the end of the year.”
Simon Webb, managing director of capital markets and finance at LiveMore:
“Another increase in seasonally adjusted property transactions is a positive sign that despite reservations about the potential outcomes of the autumn budget, there is still significant buyer demand. With inflation remaining steady at 3.8% for the third month in a row, a base rate cut next week isn’t completely off the cards and would provide some much-needed consistency for buyers still hesitant about whether this is the right time to commit.”
Hamza Behzad, business development director at Finova:
“Today’s data is a sure sign of the UK housing market’s resilience, which has held strong despite all the budget chatter. More competitive mortgage rates are boosting first-time buyers, injecting a new bit of urgency into the market. Now that the Renters’ Rights Bill has moved through Parliament – the biggest shift in rental legislation in over 30 years – some landlords are already offloading portfolios, opening up new opportunities for buyers and driving down house prices.”
Richard Sexton, commercial director of HouzeCheck:
“The numbers would be higher if people weren’t hanging back for the budget. And that doesn’t necessarily make sense. I think there’s next to no chance, for instance, that Rachel Reeves is going to introduce some radical new solution to taxing property – replacing council tax, say, with an annual levy based on a proportion of the value of each home. That would represent a revolutionary overhaul of the way property is taxed: the government doesn’t have the appetite for it. And we’re not going to get a land value tax applied equally to all land, whether or not a house has been built on it – not in a million years.
“But there is an emotional component to the decision to move home or to buy a house. People make irrational decisions and get scared even when they don’t need to. Once the budget is out of the way, I think we are going to see a lot of pent-up demand bursting out of the gates.”
