February’s transaction numbers provide a glimpse of the scale of activity in the residential property with volumes up a quarter on the same time last year, and 10% up on January 2025. With the SDLT deadline today (31st March 2025) there is no doubt February’s numbers are an indicator of what can be expected once HMRC publish the March numbers toward the end of April.
The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of residential transaction volumes in February 2025 is 90,430; numbers not see since February 2022.
The numbers reflect activity in the market following the decision by the Labour party not to extend the stamp duty reliefs introduced in the disastrous mini-Budget by then Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, at the budget in October 2024. From 1st April the threshold at which SDLT will be payable will fall from £250,000 for residential properties, to £125,000. For First Time Buyers (FTBs) they will continue to benefit from a higher nil rate band, but it will now be for properties from £300,000 to £500,000; down from £425,000 to £625,000. . The impact will be 80% of home owners, and 40% of first time buyers will have to pay stamp duty from 1st April say Zoopla.
“The pipeline of housing sales has recovered over 2024 as sales volumes have grown. The size of the sales pipeline has accelerated since the Autumn Budget, as many buyers hoped to beat next week’s stamp duty deadline, with a sizable jump in sales agreed in February 2025. Our data shows this will grow higher again next month in March.”
said Richard Donnell, Executive Director at Zoopla, adding the portal remains confident the post-deadline market is still active with sales agreed 5% up year on year, despite many knowing they would miss the deadline. Donnell said there is evidence of a stamp duty ‘hangover’ in London where there is a the highest increase in costs; but they Zoopla remain confident sales will meet their 1.15m prediction; around 5% up on 2024.
Andrew Lloyd, Managing Director at Search Acumen, said the deadline has acted as a ‘significant driver’ in transaction volumes ‘bolstered by a slight loosening of monetary conditions in February’s interest rate decision’, adding the sector might be disappointed the Bank of England chose not to cut again in recent weeks. Lloyd calls on the sector to act on growing confidence and translate it into a ‘steady, sustained flow of transactions’; and in order to achieve this he sees continued modernisation, like the government’s recent digitisation announcement, and more efficient and productive processes as key, with artificial intelligence at the forefront of those efforts.
Estate agency membership body Propertymark said the latest transaction statistics highlight the importance of the government’s continued house building efforts to increase supply.
“It is positive news that many consumers have adapted to current market conditions concerning typically higher interest rates and the impact this can have on a potential house move. House price growth has recently been reflected in this month’s UK House Price Index which was published this week and found the average house price increased by 4.9 per cent year on year, which will provide comfort to existing homeowners.
said Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, adding
“However, various governments across the UK must pay close attention to meeting their individual housing targets to help stabilise overall supply. Across the forthcoming years it will remain vital demand is met, as we see an ever-expanding population, which is expected to hit around 70m people by the end of the decade which in the longer term as supply increases this will keep a balancing effect on prices increases.”
It is anticipated conveyancers will continue to remain busy into the second quarter of the year with sales and listings both up on 2024 volumes despite the end of the current SDLT reliefs. Indeed Zoopla say sales are up 5% and with 11% more properties to buy, the prognosis for the property market after the end of March looks promising.
