A small uptick in transaction numbers demonstrates the “ongoing resilience of the housing market” said Jason Tebb, President of OnTheMarket in the wake of the latest HMRC residential property transactions covering June 2026. But the traditional June bounce has failed to materialise, leaving a more “mature” market in its wake.
The seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in June 2026 is 98,700, 2% higher than June 2025 and marginally higher (less than 1%) than May 2026: Tebb added Buyers and sellers were adapting to changing circumstances and continuing to proceed with their transactions, even in the face of economic and political uncertainty.
The figures suggest there is “still life” in the housing market, said Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals.: “Political uncertainty, higher mortgage rates and global events have undoubtedly caused some buyers to pause, but they’ve certainly not stopped the market.
“The increase in mortgage approvals is particularly encouraging because it suggests confidence is beginning to return, even if buyers remain cautious. While lenders have edged rates back up following renewed geopolitical tensions, demand hasn’t disappeared, it’s simply become more measured.
“This is no longer a market where sellers can expect buyers to compete at any price. Today’s buyers are informed, have more choice and are prepared to negotiate. The homes that are selling are the ones that are priced realistically from the outset. That’s the defining feature of the current market and it’s likely to remain so for the rest of the year.”
For Andrew Lloyd, Managing Director at property data firm Search Acumen, the figures should be treated with caution, indicative of a market which remains “resilient rather than spectacular”. But, he added, “growth is good news against wider macroeconomic concerns. June typically brings a seasonal bounce, but today’s figures suggest little more than a modest uptick. With transactions taking longer to complete than we’ve seen in decades, the data is effectively a rear-view mirror, reflecting the market sentiment of six to nine months ago rather than today’s conditions.
“We know from other sources like LonRes that transaction rates are highly localised. In prime and prime central London, annual transactions have fallen by 37%, getting closer to the pandemic lows of 2019, where we’re seeing fewer overall transactions causing prices in PCL to erode at record pace. Looking across the wider mainstream markets, the picture is more balanced. HMRC transaction data is now free from the artificial distortions caused by last year’s Stamp Duty deadline, keeping a solid base to suggest a level of market resilience underpinning regional markets. The real test for the second half of 2026 will be how interest rates and therefore mortgages perform for borrowers, as geopolitical conflicts continue to damage inflation. Yesterday’s decision to hold interest rates likely saw many breathe a sigh of relief.
“The robust nature of our mainstream residential market shouldn’t be downplayed. We saw this during lockdown, and we’re seeing it now, where despite doom-laden headlines, people continue to move home driven by life’s fundamental moments: growing families, changing careers, retirement and relocation. Crucially, the market has matured. The days of double-digit house price growth are largely behind us, and buyers are increasingly viewing property as a place to live rather than a vehicle for quick returns. That shift has created a more stable and sustainable market, underpinned by genuine demand rather than speculation.
Nathan Emerson, CEO at Propertymark, said future market confidence rested on “greater policy certainty” with questions to be answered by the new prime minster Andy Burnham. “An increase in property transactions is an encouraging sign that buyers and sellers continue to have the confidence to move despite ongoing economic and political change. Healthy transaction levels are essential, not only for the housing market, but for the wider UK economy, supporting jobs, investment and local communities.
“Looking ahead, however, market confidence will depend on greater policy certainty. Recent discussions around potential reforms to Stamp Duty and council tax, alongside broader housing policy proposals from the new Prime Minister, have created questions for many consumers. People are understandably reluctant to make major financial commitments if they are unsure how future tax changes could affect the cost of moving.
“Housing thrives on confidence and stability. With interest rates having stayed the same following (the recent Bank of England decision to hold interest rates), consumers and lenders now have greater clarity over borrowing costs, allowing households to make informed decisions about their next move. We now need that same level of certainty from government on its long-term housing strategy to help sustain market momentum.”
