New data from HM Revenue & Customs has revealed the number of UK residential property transactions in June 2024 is 5% lower than the same month last year.
The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in June 2024 is 90,420, 5% lower than June 2023 and 2% lower than May 2024
Looking at the same data on a seasonally adjusted basis, HMRC said that transactions transactions in June 2024 is 91,370, 8% higher than June 2023 and marginally lower (less than 1%) than May 2024. In response to National Statistics UK Monthly Property Transactions, Nathan Emerson CEO Propertymark, commented:
“As the political landscape simmers back down following the general election, we should start to see new housing plans become more defined. In real terms, once consumers have an opportunity to fully understand government plans moving forward, we should see confidence in the housing market move up a gear.
Propertymark remains keen to see a dip in interest rates when the Bank of England feel confident this course of action is sensible and workable. In addition, it is also a case of all eyes on government regarding potential support for first time buyers, where again there needs to be targeted ideas that allow home ownership to be a realistic proposition.”
Kevin Roberts, Managing Director, Legal and General Mortgage Services, commented:
“The market remained steady in June and July with buyers largely undeterred by the general election speculation. All eyes are now on the Bank of England’s interest rate decision tomorrow, but the truth is that the market is already enjoying strong competition on rates with many lenders now offering fixes below 4% for the first time since April. Product choice and buyer confidence are both high, feeding into a positive market outlook.
If you are contemplating your next move – whether that be a purchase, sale, or remortgage – I would encourage you to consider consulting a mortgage adviser. Advisers can remove a lot of the stress and paperwork involved in navigating the property ladder, as well as tap into exclusive products that aren’t available direct to borrowers, helping you to navigate the market with confidence.”
Andrew Lloyd, Managing Director at Search Acumen, the property data and insight provider, commented:
“The latest HMRC transaction data for June paints a mixed picture for both the residential and commercial property markets. With seasonally adjusted residential transactions increasing by 8% year-on-year but decreasing only slightly by less than 1% month-on-month, we’re seeing some signs of renewed confidence among homebuyers since last year. However, this uptick is not a steady one and suggests that while the market has regained some momentum after a period of uncertainty, it is not by any stretch, out of trouble.
The commercial property sector has not performed as favourably, with seasonally adjusted transactions the lowest they have been since June 2020 and are lower than levels nearly 10 years ago in June 2015. This is despite property values increasing for the second consecutive month in June, according to CBRE, suggesting a market short of supply and investment opportunities. The sector has been struggling to recover since the pandemic hit and has been burdened by a lack of investor confidence, particularly regarding interest rates and inflation.
However, while these numbers are not encouraging for the commercial real estate market, they represent just one month’s data. Renewed certainty from the election alongside the upcoming Bank of England decision tomorrow will be a pivotal moment for the market, where if interest rates do come down we may see a very different third quarter to the year especially for commercial transactions which are typically more sensitive to fluctuating debt.
Businesses will need to remain agile, leveraging data-driven insights and technology to navigate what remains a complex market landscape. At Search Acumen, we’re seeing increasing adoption of proptech solutions among property professionals, enabling faster, more informed decision-making in a bid to be one step ahead of our evolving market.”
Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals, said:
“Transaction numbers have been steadily growing for some time now, and a month-on-month decrease is nothing but a fly in the ointment. The market still shows strength when compared to the previous year, with June’s figures 8% higher than the same time last year.
It’s important to consider these figures in the broader context of the market’s recovery. The overall trend for 2024 remains positive, and higher transaction levels compared to last year suggest that buyer confidence is gradually returning to the market. With some experts predicting to see interest rates fall this week, we could see a consumer confidence soar towards the tail end of 2024.
This should be the shot in the arm that lenders need to ramp up better fixed-rate mortgage offers, as well as rolling out more which are 95% and 100% LTV to benefit those struggling to save for a deposit.
The new government’s commitment to house-building will take some time to have a material effect, but it could provide a welcome boost for the industry and prospective buyers.”
