New build figures show scale of challenge for 1.5m homes target

New build figures published by the National House Building Council (NHBC) and the BBC in recent days differ in absolute numbers but demonstrate the scale of the task facing the Government if it is to build 1.5m homes in the course of this Parliament. 

The NHBC say 124,144 new homes were completed in 2024, 7% down on 2023 when 133,611 new homes were completed, and 18% down on 2022 (151,297). Data published by the BBC indicates home building has fallen year on year since 2022; it uses the metric of the number of EPC registered since every new home, whether a new build or a conversion, must have an EPC by law within five days of construction work being finished. In 2024 107,426 EPCs were lodged on or before completion; 10% down year on year. In 2022 128,708 EPCs were lodged on or before completion, 17% higher than 2024.

In a BBC interview with Laura Kuenssberg on Sunday, Deputy Prime Minster Angela Rayner re-confirmed the government’s commitment to build 1.5m over the course of this Parliament. Kuenssberg said the number of sites approved for development have fallen since Labour came to office in July 2024 with Rayner responding

“we knew it was going to be really difficult… when we got into government the trend was going backwards so not only were we going to have to reverse the trend, but push ahead. But I wasn’t going to give up on the target… we’re determined to make sure we meet that 1.5m homes target.”

The NHBC, the UK’s largest provider of new home warranty and insurance, say 104,232 new homes were registered to be built in 2024, broadly in line with 2023 (105,071). This is a sizeable drop from 188,088 in 2022 to levels not seen since 2012 (104,825) and the financial crisis years of 2008/09.

There are, says the NHBC, signs of growth with private sector registrations up 11% to 68,987, compared to 62,291 in 2023. In the rental and affordable sector, the cost of remediating existing housing stock constrained development budgets, with registrations down 18% in 2024 to 35,245. With infrastructure and planning reform firmly on the government’s agenda, CEO Steve Wood says the signs are ‘encouraging’ for better house building conditions.

“While house building activity has remained broadly level with 2023, it is positive to see increased activity in the private sector. Recent announcements from the Chancellor on infrastructure and planning reform are welcome and with easing inflation, there are some encouraging signs for better house building growth conditions in 2025.”

A crude breakdown of the government’s target means just over 1,150 new homes need to be delivered every single working day for the next five years to achieve its stated aims of building 1.5m news homes in this Parliament. In a sign of the headwind facing this target registrations were significantly down in London (-48%) linked to financial challenges for housing associations and building safety costs on tall buildings. But there were big increases in North West & Merseyside (+17%), West Midlands (+16%) and Scotland (+15%)

Of the 124,144 new homes completed in 2024, 45,824 were in the rental and affordable sector, 2% down on 2023 (46,542) and the second highest figure ever recorded by NHBC. Private sector completions saw a decline of 10% on the previous year (87,069) with 78,320 plots confirmed as ready to be occupied.

Steve Wood, CEO at NHBC explains:

“It is encouraging to see a high number of new home completions in the affordable sector. If ambitions in new build housing are to be met, a mix of tenures is essential for accelerating housing delivery. Housing associations and local authorities eagerly await details of new investment in the Spring Spending Review. Private sale will continue to be the largest sector but affordable, social, and private build to rent tenures also need to be significantly scaled up.”