New data collated by Landmark Information Group has revealed mortgage availability remains “significantly subdued” following uncertainty in Q4 2022 despite the market showing some signs of recovery.
Landmark’s newly released Q1 Residential Property Trends report analyses property data for Q1 2023 across the entire residential property transaction chain.
Landmark’s data revealed “partial signs” of market recovery as supply strengthened throughout Q1 and interest rates settled.
The report also reveals a strengthening in listings – only down 3% on 2019 Q1 benchmark levels – alongside recovering residential SSTC and search volumes.
However, this contrasts with the continued subdued levels of mortgage valuations which reflect a shortage of buyer access to affordable mortgages.
“As the housing market stabilises after the disruptions of last year, consumers’ ability to buy continues to determine market trajectory,” said Simon Brown, CEO, Landmark Information Group:
“While there is still strong appetite among movers, the availability of mortgages and cost-of-living pressures seem likely to play a significant role in shaping market conditions in the near-term.
We see a recovery in property listings needing a similar level of mortgage availability for the market to overcome its recent corrections and adjustments.”
Key findings from the report
Cross market activity
- Listings volumes are recovering with overall activity just down 3% on Q1 ‘19.
- There’s no dramatic change to the volume of transactions reaching SSTC in Q1 ’23 vs Q4 ’22, “possibly due to homeowners waiting for market stability”.
- Searches ordered in Q1 ’23 also remain consistent with Q4 ’22 although they are 31% down vs Q1’19.
- Completions slowed in Q1 ‘23 – down 10% on Q4 ’22 volumes. Landmark said this is likely due to the low SSTC figures at the end of Q4 ‘22.
Listings data relative to 2019
- Supply volumes were below 2019 at the start of the year, likely due to the unease of Q4 ’22 and the following sudden drop in demand, said Landmark.
- However, by March ’23, supply volumes exceeded those in March ’19 by 6%.
- The market “appears to be finding its feet again”, with Landmark suggesting transaction levels over the coming months will confirm whether or not the trend will continue.
SSTC
- SSTC volumes ended the quarter 22% below in March ’23 vs March ‘19
Property Search to SSTC
- Residential search volumes for January this year are 38% down compared to January ‘19
- SSTC volumes are recovering at a faster rate that search volumes, indicating a rising market. If this continues in Q2 ’23, then we will be in “touching distance” of 2019 volumes, said Landmark.
