Hot weather, a new prime minister and the football World Cup have added to the growing list of “distractions” facing home buyers, according to Rightmove’s latest house price index.
The number of sales agreed in the first half of the year was 6% lower than the same period in 2025, the latest figures reveal.
However, the same period in 2025 was dominated by the impending end of stamp duty land tax incentives and the subsequent fall off in demand, and Rightmove reports sales agreed volumes in 2026 were level with the first half of 2024.
In the run up to the summer holiday season, the World Cup and an unusually hot summer have added to “distractions” including geopolitical turmoil, increases to the Bank of England base rate and its impact on mortgage rates, and a new prime minister.
Rightmove’s analysis shows the first heatwave in May caused a temporary 8% drop in buyer demand before rebounding, while June’s heatwave caused a similar temporary decline of 6%, followed by a 4% dip during the current July heatwave.
Supply doesn’t seem to be the issue, with the number of available homes for sale just 1% below this time last year and still very close to a 12-year high for this period.
Demand dynamics are, however, having an impact. Sellers are competing harder to attract buyers and the average asking price of newly listed homes for sale dropped by 1.0% in July, down £3,832 to £372,359. The decreased is substantially larger than the average July drop over the last 10 years of 0.2%.
Colleen Babcock, property expert at Rightmove, commented: “This month’s larger-than-normal price fall reflects the reality of a market where buyers have plenty of choice and sellers are having to work harder to stand out and attract them. They’re also competing with an unusual number of distractions which have been keeping the minds of some potential buyers occupied, namely the World Cup and the hot weather. While these diversions are short-term, they’re adding to what is already a distracting summer holiday period to create a challenging selling environment.”
More positively, many of the fundamentals underpinning the market remain sound, Rightmove said. Lenders are competing, wages are rising faster than house prices and unemployment remains low.
The average two-year fixed mortgage rate now stands at 4.92%, up from 4.25% in February before the war in Iran began. However, this is also a small drop from 5.07% last month. These factors leave “room for optimism” as the market moves through the second half of the year, Rightmove explained.
Matt Smith, Rightmove’s mortgage expert, said: “Mortgage rates are higher than many buyers would have hoped for at the start of the year, and the increases due to the war in Iran have understandably dented confidence for some. However, lenders remain keen to lend, and the mortgage market is still competitive.
“There is still uncertainty in the market, and recent mortgage cuts could stop in the near future, however we’re not seeing the kind of difficult lending conditions that have caused more challenging markets in the past. If the outlook shifted and we saw reductions in mortgage rates, it would be a welcome boost to confidence and affordability.”
Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, said: “While the year initially started with optimism in the housing market, global unease has in many ways dominated the agenda ever since. Rightly so, many consumers have been exercising greater caution with their spending to help ensure household budgets are better protected against unforeseen increases in expenditure.
“In recent months, we have witnessed mortgage borrowing dip significantly, alongside a lower volume of new mortgage approvals. All eyes will be firmly focused on the Bank of England at the end of the month as it makes its next decision on the base rate, something that will very much set the tone, especially for those considering their next house move or who have tracker mortgage products.”
Rightmove has called for new prime minister Andy Burnham to put housing high on the agenda. A new prime minister presents an opportunity to “reset priorities”, the company said in a statement, and called for and urgent focus on reforming stamp duty to improve market mobility and affordability, and supporting the housebuilding industry to deliver the government’s 1.5 million homes target.
According to Rightmove’s data, the number of new developments coming to market is at its lowest level since January 2017.
“What would be most unhelpful for the market is long periods of uncertainty caused by policy rumours and speculation,” Rightmove said. “There have already been rumours about a potential land value tax replacing stamp duty and council tax. If rumours are allowed to swirl, with no clear details or deadlines, some potential home-movers may hesitate for fear of missing out.”
