HMRC’s residential transaction figures for October reveal a 2% monthly increase, up from 96,730 in September to 98,450 in October – the highest seasonally adjusted residential transaction figure since March 2025.
Non-seasonally adjusted residential transactions increased by 13% in October 2025 relative to September 2025.
Seasonally adjusted non-residential transactions have also seen an increase, with figures for October 2025 4% higher relative to September 2025 and 29% lower than in October 2024. Non-seasonally adjusted non-residential transactions are 10% higher relative to September 2025.
“Today’s data suggests both housing and commercial markets have slipped into a holding pattern, with residential transactions drifting slightly lower than October 2024’, said Andrew Lloyd, managing director at property data company Search Acumen.
“This isn’t a collapse, it’s a pause. Buyers and sellers have been pressing the ‘wait’ button while trying to make sense of the chancellor’s moves and it’s clear that budget blundering has left many uncertain, keeping timid transactions tainting market momentum.”
“The industry is seeing the usual seasonal slowdown collide with a pre-budget freeze, creating what feels like a double drag on confidence. Now the chancellor has spoken, we’ll see whether pent-up decisions ripple through the data before year-end or whether uncertainty lingers into Q1 2026.”
“The latest HMRC figures show a market that has held its nerve through a period of heightened uncertainty”, Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals, said.
“It’s important to remember that these results come from a market where many households were effectively holding their breath ahead of potential property reforms in the autumn budget. Now that the budget has been confirmed, thousands of movers finally have the clarity they need to progress.
“What we’re seeing beneath the headlines is a market underpinned by needs-based buyers and sellers, those upsizing, downsizing, or moving for lifestyle reasons, who have continued to transact regardless of noise around the edges. At the same time, metrics such as mortgage approvals point to an underlying resilience, signalling cautious confidence.
“An increase in homes coming to market compared with last year is giving buyers more choice than they’ve had for some time, which is keeping price growth in check. Looking ahead, affordability is set to improve gradually as wage growth continues to outpace house prices, and borrowing may become more accessible if the Bank of England moves to cut the Base Rate in the coming months. With inflation falling in October, there is growing optimism that another rate cut is on the cards as early as December.
“Taken together, these are encouraging indicators. As we move into the winter period, we expect greater stability and a more decisive return of movers who had been waiting on the sidelines.”
Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops, said the transaction results show ‘a mixed bag’. He added:
“Whilst there were reports of transactions pressing ahead to beat the budget deadline, in the main we saw a market on pause. However, despite this pitstop, the engine remained fundamentally strong fuelled by lifestyle-led moves. Now the chancellor’s changes have been announced, there may be a few asset-rich cash-poor homeowners that need to redraw the roadmap, but many will choose to race ahead with the benefit of greater clarity.
“It is likely we will see more stock come to the market in the short term, with minor price adjustments for properties just over the £2m cliff edge. We might also see an increase in demand for homes under the tax limit, where buyers adjust budgets with household cashflow in mind. For the South East, this could create upward pressure on prices in the mid-tier or even lower-end property markets, leading to spillover effects for demand in new areas.
“History shows that when SDLT changes, the housing market doesn’t just react, it leaps. In March, exchanges surged as buyers raced to beat the threshold reduction deadline, only for activity to catch its breath afterwards. Now, the key is keeping transactions moving and prices stable. A fluid market oils far more than estate agency alone: conveyancers, removals, local trades and even retail all rely on housing to keep their wheels turning.”
Nick Hale, CEO at Movera, and Propertymark CEO Nathan Emerson both welcomed the ‘reassuring’ and ‘positive’ figures.
“It’s reassuring to see that transactions continued to persevere in October as many buyers refused to be sidelined by budget speculation”, Hale said.
“We can now expect to see property transactions continue this upward trajectory into 2026, as mainstream buyers emerged from Wednesday’s announcement relatively unscathed.”
Emerson added:
“Typically on the lead up to any budget announcement, the housing market can witness a degree of hesitation, as people look to assess what might be proposed. However, any such impact beforehand is not an exact science to the magnitude of uncertainty.
“With lower base rates than only 12 months back, it is positive to see forward momentum in terms of growth in the number of housing transactions taking place both year-on-year and month-on-month while referring to the non-seasonally adjusted figures.”
