HMRC’s May transaction data suggests last month’s optimism in the face of a steep decline was justified, with the seasonally adjusted figures showing a 25% rise since April. But while the news has been welcomed by industry commentators, some are warning the market hasn’t fully recovered just yet.
While May represents a healthy month-on-month increase, the seasonally adjusted figure is 12% lower than the same month last year. Seasonally adjusted non-residential transactions have also seen a month-on-month increase, with figures for May 2025 increasing by 4%. However, seasonally adjusted non-residential transactions for the year are also lower than last year, by 5%.
Industry reaction
While commentators are encouraged by the figures, which they say are a ‘positive signal’, ‘powerful statement of resilience’ in the housing market and ‘the return of genuine, underlying demand’, some are adopting a more cautious approach.
Legal
Sharon Beedham, relationship director at ONP Solicitors, said the uptick in residential transactions for May ‘is no surprise’ following the stamp duty rush – but the year-on-year decline shows ongoing affordability issues amid economic uncertainty.
“The sector needs consistency and clarity from policymakers to support sustained confidence. We’re seeing that when the rules shift, so does momentum, resulting in inevitable spikes in demand which often present a challenge for many in the sector. It will be interesting to see if activity can be sustained through the second half of the year without the crutch of temporary tax incentives.”
Property
Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla, said stamp duty changes continue to have an impact but will soon be forgotten.
“Our leading data shows new sales are being agreed at the fastest rate for four years as more homes for sale means more buyers in the market with the stamp duty changes in the distant past in the minds of home buyers. The market remains on track for 1.15m sales in 2025, up five per cent on 2024 levels as more households move home.”
Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals, had an overwhelmingly positive reaction to the figures, which he said are ‘not just a rebound’, but ‘a powerful statement of the UK housing market’s fundamental strength and resilience’.
“The rush to complete in March created an artificial lull, but we are now seeing the return of genuine, underlying demand. The market has successfully absorbed the impact of the new tax thresholds and is now moving forward with confidence.”
McKenzie outlined the key factors he believes are ‘fuelling this renewed vigour’, including the 4.25% interest rate. But the most significant catalyst, he said, is the relaxation of affordability criteria creating ‘a new wave of purchasing power’.
“This isn’t a one-sided story of runaway demand. The significant 13% year-on-year increase in available properties is creating a healthier, more balanced marketplace. Buyers now have more choice than they’ve had for years, which is helping to keep price growth sustainable. This combination of strong, confident demand and increased supply is the perfect recipe for a stable and active market.”
Finance
Simon Webb, managing director of capital markets and finance at LiveMore, said the rise in property transactions is ‘a positive signal that market confidence is gradually returning’.
“A subdued April was unsurprising following the March stamp duty deadline rush, but nevertheless it’s encouraging to see stability returning to the housing market. With interest rates no longer in flux, we’re seeing growing confidence among borrowers who can now plan ahead with greater certainty.”
Webb also urged lenders not to overlook the needs of over-50s borrowers – ‘one of the most underserved and financially diverse segments of the market’.
“With the right support, older borrowers can play a powerful role in driving market activity – not just as movers or refinancers, but as key enablers of intergenerational wealth and mobility.”
PropTech
Andrew Lloyd, managing director at Search Acumen, said the activity is encouraging – but market performance ‘remains underwhelming’.
“Our analysis of HM Land Registry data showed total transactions in Q1 were only 1.1% higher than last year, but this modest growth was offset following the recent drop in deal volume.
“We’re now at a pivotal juncture. Positive signals from the Government, following the Spending Review and 10-Year Infrastructure Strategy, combined with promising increases in capital and rent values, have the potential to ensure investor confidence in the UK’s real estate ecosystem does not dwindle.”
See the full data at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/monthly-property-transactions-completed-in-the-uk-with-value-40000-or-above/uk-monthly-property-transactions-commentary–2
