The latest UK Residential Property Survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) reveals weak buyer demand across the country, with ongoing tariff wars creating an ‘increasingly challenging macro backdrop’.
New buyer demand slipped to -32% in March, down from -16% in February – the weakest return since September 2023. ‘Virtually all parts of the country are now seeing a weaker buyer demand picture coming through,’ the report notes.
Three-month sales expectations point to a further dip in activity, with RICS reporting a net balance of -18% in March, down from -6% in February.
Looking further ahead, the picture is a little more positive: 11% of the chartered surveyors who took part in the the monthly survey expect sales volumes to rise over a 12 month period. However, sentiment remains mainly cautious, with the report noting that ‘the latest reading is the least optimistic going back over the last 16 months’.
The supply picture is similarly muted: although a net balance of +20% of respondents reported a year-on-year rise in appraisals, only +6% said there had been a modest pick-up in fresh listings in March. With the six-month average coming in at 17%, this suggests growth is slowing down, says RICS.
Commenting on the March report, RICS chief economist Simon Rubinsohn said:
“The expiry of the stamp duty break was always going to lead to a pause in activity in the sales market. However, the latest results, and indeed the anecdotal remarks from respondents to the survey, suggest that the shift in sentiment has been aggravated by the slew of negative macro newsflow over the past few weeks.
“Looking forward, the impact on the market will in no small part depend on how the economy is affected by the emerging trade war and the response of the Bank of England to the shifting environment. For now, it is noteworthy that the longer-term RICS expectations metrics are still relatively resilient, but they have the potential to be blown off course if the tariff headwinds intensify.”
In terms of house prices, RICS says feedback is of growth ‘largely flattening out’ in England and Wales, with Scotland and Northern Ireland showing a more resilient upward trend. With three month price expectations posting a net balance of -26%, compared to -16% last month, respondents expect prices to take a downturn in the short term.
However, 12 month expectations remain positive with a net balance of +39% respondents anticipating prices will rise of the year (slightly down on last year’s +47%). This suggests, RICS concludes, that the current turbulence is expected to be relatively short-lived.
