September’s housing market figures tell a “familiar tale” said one market commentator in response to the latest HMRC transaction numbers which showed the “market is neither sinking nor swimming, just treading water” ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) latest monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on Thursday 5th November.
Anthony Codling, managing director of equity release at RBC Capital Markets said the market remains “stuck in a subdued gear”” after transactions edged down half a percent from August and sit 4% below last September. More “tellingly” the numbers are 2% below the five-year average and 4% below the ten-year mark added Codling.
The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in September 2026 is 94,800.
Jason Tebb, President of OnTheMarket, said the numbers show the market “continued to be muted in September as the ongoing uncertainty created by the Middle East conflict and its impact on energy prices, inflation and mortgage pricing coincided with concerns about higher taxes in the run-up to the Budget.
“The Bank of England’s decision to hold interest rates steady so far this year has helped confidence but higher mortgage rates, on the back of volatility in Swap rates, have squeezed affordability.”
There is hope the Your First Home scheme, announced in the budget last week, will help, added Tebb, particularly for those who can’t call upon the Bank of Mum and Dad for assistance
Ian Harris, NAEA Propertymark president was similarly hopeful the uncertainty created by the budget will make way for “much-needed structural clarity on policy for the forthcoming months”.
“Across the year to date, the housing market has been navigating a period of buyer caution and affordability concern” said Harris, adding: “However, with inflation creeping upwards again and speculation surrounding the direction the Bank of England may take regarding the base rate there are still important considerations for consumers to review in terms of how this may affect their confidence and affordability moving forwards.”
“The expansion of the ‘Your First Home’ scheme is an encouraging step forward, allowing aspiring buyers in England to access property ownership and helping to alleviate the significant initial cost burden facing first-time buyers.
“The introduction of the new First-Time Buyer ISA also provides a vital vehicle for future savers to build their deposits safely. Removing the withdrawal penalties associated with the previous Lifetime ISA framework is a welcome progression, ensuring savers are not penalised if their eventual property ambitions change.”
Property portal Zoopla said it anticipated 100,000 fewer transactions in 2026 compared with 2025 reflecting a “changing pace of activity in the housing market” and the impact of higher mortgage rates on home movers.
Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla said: “Higher mortgage rates over the summer and this autumn have seen a 15% hit to buying power for those using a mortgage. Sales agreed in the last 4 weeks are also 7% lower than a year ago as buyers become more selective and adopt a wait and see approach.”
The latest Nationwide house price index, published on the same day as HMRC’s transaction numbers, saw further “slowing in UK annual house price growth to 0.5%, from 0.8% in September. That is the weakest growth since January 2024. Prices were flat month on month, after taking account of seasonal factors.”
Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist added “forward-looking indicators suggest further softness in the near term. Surveyors report that new buyer enquiries remain weak. Moreover, consumer sentiment dipped noticeably in October, with households becoming less confident about the outlook for the general economy as well as their own financial situation in the year ahead.”
After the latest inflation numbers there are fears, added Tebb, the MPC’s hands could be tied with the first rate rise this year.
For Andrew Lloyd, managing director at property data firm Search Acumen there is an opportunity there to continue to build on the work done to date on improving the home moving experience: “Some of these building blocks should focus on speeding up transaction timelines and increasing both the quality and quantity of data used to underpin decisions. The UK is moving in the right direction here, with MHCLG’s ongoing consultation on land-use data as one reassuring example.
“But as more decision-making is devolved, maintaining a coherent national framework will be essential to avoid a patchwork of competing systems and policies. Devolution can unlock growth, but only if local priorities complement rather than obstruct national objectives, particularly when it comes to housing and infrastructure.
“Technology should be the glue that holds this together. Better data, forecasting and planning can give investors the confidence to deploy capital more effectively, a trend already visible in more complex portfolio transactions. Over time, a common data-led framework could help deliver faster, smarter decisions across the entire property industry.”
Maria Harris, chair of the Open Property Data Association concurs, adding “The autumn upturn in property transactions is an encouraging sign for home movers and the wider property industry, despite numbers remaining down from this time last year.
“Yet, we risk not making the most of this improvement if the system behind the numbers doesn’t change. (The) Budget proved that housing reform is still firmly on the agenda, with the confirmation of £4.7bn of funding for the Your First Home scheme. This is the perfect opportunity for the industry to rally around smart data and get involved in shaping trusted data standards, otherwise many of those first homes might get stuck in limbo.”
