HM Revenue and Customs property transactions for July 2026 totalled 96,710, 2% lower than the previous month and 1% lower than July last year (both figures seasonally adjusted).
The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate is 106,620, a 5% year-on-year increase and 3% higher than June 2026.
When viewed in conjunction with the latest data from Zoopla, which showed a 7% increase in the number of prospective buyers, the non-seasonally adjusted figure is a reason to remain optimistic, Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals, said.
“That interest will take time to translate into enquiries, agreed sales and completed signals”, he acknowledged. “But it is an encouraging early signal as we head into autumn.”
Fine & Country managing director Nicky Stevenson also believes the housing market could be approaching a seasonal turning point. She said: “Buyer attention is starting to return to the market.
“A 7% year-on-year increase in people searching for homes is an important early indicator, particularly as every region is seeing more search activity for the first time in a year. It suggests buyers are moving from simply waiting to actively considering their options again.”
According to Andrew Lloyd, managing director at property data firm Search Acumen, economic conditions have a limited impact on the market. He explained: “With geopolitical tensions escalating, not least after the US Treasury declared an economic D-Day against Iran whilst fresh trade skirmishes are breaking out, we can expect to see a further squeeze on the UK economy.
“The Bank of England is clearly doing all it can to avoid raising interest rates, but it may only be a matter of time before the MPC pulls that particular lever so the market will be in for an anxious wait to see which way the decision goes in September.”
He added: “Despite a poor economic environment, the fact is that the residential market in particular is driven by the engines of real life, and unless families stop growing, people stop relocating for work, and retirement is banned, people will still need to move house.”
North London estate agent Jeremy Leaf believes HMRC’s figures are a more accurate indicator of housing market strength than “volatile” price indices. “Although often reflecting decision-making of a few months ago, these numbers confirm what we’ve been seeing at the sharp end”, he said.
“Activity is holding up better than we’d dared hoped, bearing in mind economic and political distractions.
“Genuine buyers and sellers are negotiating hard but once terms are agreed, sales are completing. However, lack of urgency and the amount of choice – particularly of flats – is extending the period before offers are submitted as well as conveyancing times.”
For Maria Harris, chair of the Open Property Data Association, HMRC’s July figures are a reminder that the housing market remains vulnerable to uncertainties that can only be fixed by addressing structural issues.
She explained: “The focus needs to move beyond simply increasing transaction volumes and towards making every transaction more reliable and less prone to delay and failure.
“The government’s commitment to modernise homebuying creates a real opportunity to do this. But turning ambition into reality will require trusted property data, common standards and systems that can share information securely and consistently.
“If we get those fundamentals right, higher transaction volumes can be matched by a home buying experience that works better for everyone.”
