HMRC figures for seasonally adjusted residential transactions in March 2026 are 1% higher than February 2026, up to 104,070 from 102,750 – the highest monthly transaction figure since March 2025. Seasonally adjusted transaction figures are 41% lower than in March 2025.
The large year-on-year decrease is driven by elevated transaction levels in March 2025 ahead of the changes to SDLT thresholds in April 2025, HMRC pointed out. The statistics represent completions which are on average two to four months after an initial offer is made on a property and don’t necessarily represent the current strength of the property market.
Adding context to the figures, RBC Capital Markets managing director Anthony Codling said: “March 2026 housing transactions have returned to earth after last year’s scramble for the exit.
“At 104,070 seasonally adjusted transactions, the UK market looks almost normal: 5% above the five-year average and +1.3% up month-on-month.
“But context is everything: the 41% year-on-year collapse isn’t a sign the housing market has fallen off a cliff, it’s the ghost of April 2025’s SDLT threshold changes. Last March saw 176,190 transactions as buyers stampeded to beat the deadline; this March is what happens when the sugar rush wears off.”
Nick Leeming, chairman of estate agents Jackson Stops, agreed. “HMRC figures revealing a year-on-year decline in property transactions largely reflect the exceptional surge in activity seen in March last year, rather than any deterioration in today’s market conditions. With over 160,000 transactions recorded in March 2025, activity reached unusually elevated levels as buyers brought forward purchases ahead of the Stamp Duty threshold changes, creating a temporary distortion in the annual comparison.
“This is a pattern that has been seen before in policy-driven markets, most notably in 2021 when activity spiked sharply ahead of the end of the Covid-era Stamp Duty holiday before normalising once the incentive was removed. In June 2021, monthly transactions rose to in excess of 200,000, illustrating the scale of the short-term pull-forward effect. In both instances, it is policy timing rather than underlying demand that has driven the volatility in the data.
“Stripping out these effects, underlying market conditions today remain broadly steady. Transaction levels in recent months have shown little volatility, suggesting a consistent level of activity despite the headline movement in the annual figures.”
For Andrew Lloyd, managing director at Search Acumen, the data matters because it answers a simple question: “Are we pausing or stalling?”
He explained: “So far, the signs point to hesitation. The housing market is absorbing an extraordinary number of shocks at once. Alongside ongoing geopolitical uncertainty weighing on confidence, buyers and sellers are adjusting to a dense mix of tax and policy headwinds: frozen inheritance tax thresholds, the end of the non‑dom regime, higher borrowing costs, rising transaction expenses and a stagnant Stamp Duty framework that keeps moving costs elevated.”
Lloyd added: “In housing, everyone is watching everyone else in a ‘who will blink first’ market. Sellers won’t move without an offer; buyers won’t commit without cheaper mortgages. Downsizers armed with cash are ready, but younger families are stuck behind stubbornly high rates and expiring low-cost fixes. You can’t help but feel like it’s a kettle that’s been left on a low boil for too long. As summer approaches, I think lenders are likely to blink first and ease rates to get the market moving again.”
Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance, questioned how long market resilience will last.
“Although the property market has always been the platform for a strong economy, even if demand is strong, there is only so much negativity that buyers and sellers can take before sentiment switches,” he said.
“Buyers have been resilient in tough conditions, but one wonders for how much longer this will be the case.”
But estate agents aren’t yet seeing any sign of the resilience abating. Amy Reynolds, head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, said: “On the ground, we saw some softening in initial viewing levels in March as people took stock of the situation in the Middle East and what impact this might have on borrowing costs.
“However, since then, things have picked up and the past week has been very busy, with a strong level of viewings and serious offers coming through.”
Commentary from Propertymark CEO Nathan Emerson was unusually pessimistic. He said: “Despite starting the year with positivity and with current uncertainty globally, it sadly comes as little shock that we are seeing a slowing year-on-year in the number of completed property transactions within the marketplace.
“Although there is positive news to be seen when comparing the figures directly against last month, it is important to acknowledge the many challenges ahead.”
One Response
‘almost normal’ & ‘five year average’
I don’t think the market has been normal since prior to 2004!
Since then it’s either been inflated by a credit bubble, bust, then artificially stimulated, then on life support with limited heartbeat. Then, dead…… (Covid). Then monstrous boom. Then, life support.
What about any of that sounds normal?
Those of us who have been in it long enough know the the housing market became dysfunctional a long time ago
Since then the patient has been kept functioning through a cocktail of prescription drugs, exotic narcotics and stimulus treatment.
Make no mistake though. As much as anybody wants to stand by the bedside and see signs of hope in small windows. When you zoom out and see the bigger picture, what we are really discussing here is a market that isn’t as active as it was twenty years ago
That’s both in relative terms, actual numbers & build numbers.