The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.0% in the 12 months to February 2026, unchanged from the 12 months to January. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.4% in February 2026, the same rate as in February 2025.
“Inflation holding firm in February is quite literally the calm before the storm as we anticipate and brace for a spike in inflation in the coming months,” John Phillips, CEO of Just Mortgages and Spicerhaart, said.
“In truth, many are already overlooking today’s data in preparation of what is to come as the disruption caused by the conflict filters through to the UK economy. We’ve seen already a nailed-on cut turn into a hold and the promise of future cuts turn into the very real threat of rate increases. Even if the conflict stopped tomorrow, ‘Trumpflation’ is likely to linger on.’’
Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, agrees that geopolitical tensions will introduce pressure on many households.
“Today’s news should help bring a measured sense of consistency in terms of the ‘here and now’ regarding how the economy is currently coping,” he said. “However, when looking at the wider global picture there are many factors which remain changeable and have the potential to highly influence the economic outlook moving forwards.
“Following recent news that government borrowing costs were higher than anticipated, there is significant work needed to encourage and support growth in the housing market over the coming months.
“We have moved from a sense of optimism to a feeling of justified concern in a short amount of time. While caution from the Bank of England will be necessary to help further slow inflation, it is hoped that we will eventually see more favourable mortgage rates appear across the lending spectrum when realistic.”
Ben Thompson, director of home moving strategy at the Mortgage Advice Bureau, believes the inflation numbers feel irrelevant and outdated in light of recent events.
“What we do know is the outlook for inflation becomes very gloomy with every hour of this conflict that passes without resolution or any degree of certainty,” he said.
“We also know that UK economic growth was continuing its struggle before the conflict started, and maybe that calls into question the much anticipated and covered three or four rate rises due now this year, as opposed to the two or so falls that had been expected. Inflation must not be allowed to creep back in.
“However, a stalling and even falling economy is very negative also, and so maybe we won’t see rates rise as much this year as some are predicting, and in fact we could see them hold for a while until the outlook becomes much clearer. That would feel sensible, but it’s a very fine balance indeed.”
