After Rightmove’s latest data offered a more optimistic picture of the housing market, ONS consumer price inflation figures and UK house price index bring what PwC UK described as “a fresh fog”.
But despite the ongoing uncertainty over the Middle East conflict, other experts point out the house price index offers a backdated snapshot, and estate agents report healthy footfall and determined buyers.
Commenting on the CPI rising to 3.3% year-on-year in March, John Phillips, CEO of Just Mortgages and Spicerhaart, said: “While we’re certainly feeling it at the petrol pumps, the conflict in Iran hasn’t seemed to slow down movers and buyers – neither has the Easter half-term disruption, said of CPI rising to 3.3% in March.
“We are still posting really positive numbers for buyer registrations, valuation requests and for mortgage appointments. While remortgages continue to drive activity, we are still seeing really encouraging purchase numbers.”
Propertymark CEO Nathan Emerson acknowledged the news would be “a disappointing, yet widely anticipated outcome” but encouraged a realistic outlook.
“[Until] inflation is reduced to more sustainable levels, it will have a wider impact on the UK’s housing market,” he pointed out.
“At this point, it’s important not to be pessimistic, nor overconfident; instead, we must be finely tuned to being genuinely realistic. The housing sector is a key indicator of wider financial health and an extremely important sector to see survive and thrive, but there are important considerations ahead.”
On the ONS UK HPI figures, which show a 1.2% increase, to a UK average of £268,000, in the 12 months to February (up from 1% in the 12 months to January), Emerson added: “While it is encouraging to see growth within the housing market, we sit in a phase where the forthcoming months are more difficult to foretell from an affordability viewpoint.
“With the wider picture regarding inflation being very complex to fully envisage, the Bank of England will likely choose to approach the situation with extreme caution, as they make their next base rate decision at the end of the month.
“Worst case scenario, some people may find additional pressures being placed on their household finances across the coming months from three distinct angles. Inflation may push up prices on key household purchases, such as the weekly shop. Base rates could also see increases, affecting those with tracker products, as well as those taking on new mortgage deals, and we could see potential fluctuation in energy prices as well.”
For Barret Kupelian, chief economist at PwC UK, the bigger story was the regional divide. In the North West of England house price inflation stood at 3.1% in the 12 months to January 2026, down from 4% in the 12 months to December 2025. In London, prices fell for the sixth consecutive month, down by 1.7% in the 12 months to January, compared with a fall of 1.2% in the 12 months to December 2025.
“The housing market is no longer moving as one country, but as two,” Kupelian said. “Today’s data shows the UK housing market is still living with a pronounced North-South divide.
“The question now is not whether the market softens, but by how much. The Autumn Budget uncertainty of last year may be behind us, but events in the Middle East have replaced it with a fresh fog: uncertainty over interest rates, volatility in swap markets pushing up mortgage pricing, and the risk of higher than initially anticipated inflation for longer. Add in the introduction of the Renters’ Rights Bill, and a cooler housing market would be a natural consequence.
“In short, the housing market is in a cautious phase. Once the fog begins to lift on rates, inflation and regulation, activity should start to recover.”
Elsewhere, particularly amongst estate agents, sentiment was more positive and focused on current conditions.
Richard Donnell, executive director of research at Zoopla, said: “The housing market is holding steady despite events in the Middle East – house price inflation is slower than earnings which is helping with affordability.
“Zoopla’s data shows buyers are back in the market after Easter and sales agreed are holding up as committed buyers press ahead. Lower mortgage rates will support activity in the coming months, which is good news for record numbers of sellers, but it is still very much a buyers market.”
Amy Reynolds, head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, also had an optimistic outlook. She said: “We are seeing a slight softening in viewing numbers as some buyers pause to assess the situation; however, the underlying market remains robust.
“Serious buyers are still very much active, with second viewings continuing and sales being agreed at levels typical for this time of year. While there is greater awareness of cost, for the right property, committed buyers are continuing to move forward with confidence.”
Market activity continues despite constrained conditions, according to Jackson-Stops chairman Nick Leeming.
“Buyer demand is present, although increasingly contingent on pricing and financing, with affordability remaining a key consideration in determining the pace of sales,” he explained.
“Performance continues to vary across regions, with markets characterised by stronger demand and constrained supply proving more resilient, while others are experiencing longer timeframes to agree sales and greater price sensitivity.
“Looking ahead, the near-term outlook will be influenced by the direction of mortgage rates and wider financing conditions. Recent adjustments in mortgage pricing, alongside ongoing uncertainty around the policy outlook from the Bank of England, are likely to weigh on momentum, even where underlying demand remains intact.
“At the same time, heightened geopolitical uncertainty is making the outlook more difficult to predict over the coming months. However, the market has so far shown continued resilience, with activity continuing even as borrowing costs have edged higher in recent weeks.”
James Evans, CEO at Douglas & Gordon, acknowledged trends are becoming harder to predict – but “demand hasn’t vanished”.
He added: “With hopes of relief via rate cuts or stamp duty changes fading, more movers are accepting that waiting for perfect conditions also means putting life on hold.
“For many, decisions are being driven by jobs and family needs, and buyers with competitive mortgage offers will be keen to proceed while those deals still work.
“The encouraging point is that this is starting to look like a market that rewards good preparation and sensible pricing. Even amid wider uncertainty, there are still buyers ready to act when the right home comes along.”
