Market activity in March appears stable so far despite the new geopolitical uncertainty created by the Iran war, according to Rightmove’s latest figures.
The property portal’s real-time snapshot of daily market activity on Friday revealed the number of sales being agreed is only 2% behind the strong market of this time last year, and 5% ahead of 2024. This suggests that home-movers are continuing with deals despite headlines about potential mortgage rate rises and increases to fuel and energy costs, Rightmove said.
The number of new listings coming onto the market over the same period is just 3% behind last year, and 7% ahead of 2024.
“These stats suggest that seller confidence has so far remained resilient, with many continuing to take advantage of the spring selling window,” Rightmove said.
New buyer demand was already running lower than in last year’s busier market but has fallen no further since the beginning of the Iran war, the company added.
“It’s too early to assess what the full impact of these geopolitical events on the market. However, Rightmove has not seen the same kind of immediate and sharp response from movers that there was to previous events, such as stamp duty changes or the rapid mortgage rate rises in September 2022.”
Affordability remains a key driver of activity in the current price-sensitive market, indicated by regional and sector splits. The lower‑priced North of England, Scotland and Wales are seeing stronger annual price growth than the more expensive southern England, with the North West leading the way with a 2.6% annual increase in prices compared to London’s 2.1% fall.
Meanwhile, smaller 0-2 bedroom properties, which are typical starter homes, have fallen in price by a national average of 0.4% over the last year. By contrast, middle market second-stepper homes are up by 0.6% and prices for the largest top-of-the-ladder homes are flat. Slight price falls for typical first homes may provide a window of opportunity for deposit-ready first-time buyers this spring, though saving up a deposit remains a challenge when average rents are near record levels and cost-of-living pressures persist.
“Market activity remains stable so far in March which is encouraging given the new global uncertainty over the last few weeks, though it’s too early to tell what may happen later down the line,” said Colleen Babcock, property expert at Rightmove.
“That said, uncertainty is never helpful for market activity, and it’s come at a time when confidence and optimism would usually be building as the spring market gets underway. It’s understandable that many potential buyers may have one eye on news about mortgage rates and wider household costs. For context, the average monthly mortgage payment on a new purchase has increased by around £45 so far, but is still around £70 lower than it would have been at this time last year.”
Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, said:
“Consumers are generally in a far stronger position to purchase a property than they were a year ago, mainly due to serval successive base rate cuts and falls in the rate of inflation as well.
“Our member agents have reported an encouraging start to the year, with a sense of resilience when looking at the number of properties being placed for sale and the number of viewings on each available property too.
“Housing continues to play a driving role in the UK economy, and we are continuing to see progression regarding overall affordably. Across the last twelve months, we have seen a near 15% drop in the magnitude of fall-throughs reported per member branch, helping demonstrate a stronger degree of determination from both buyers and seller alike to complete on their transaction.”
“The north-south divide illustrates how important affordability is when it comes to people’s ability to move house. In the more expensive south, price growth is more muted as buyers face more of a struggle in raising the necessary deposit and demonstrating enough income to satisfy lenders,” said Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance.
“Everyone has one eye on the Middle East conflict, which could have an impact on inflation and therefore interest rates. Whereas market expectations were for at least one further rate cut in base rate this year, with inflation likely to spike as a result of the Middle East conflict, on top of existing economic policies, we could even see an interest rate increase. Hopefully, a steady hand on the tiller keeping rates where they are, rather than a kneejerk reaction that creates higher costs for homeowners, will prevail.”
