The UK housing market performed broadly in line with expectations over the last year despite fluctuations triggered by stamp duty changes, Halifax says in its end of year review.
Although forecasts are uncertain against an unsteady economic backdrop, the lender believes house prices will continue to rise modestly and affordability will ease slightly.
As we say goodbye to “one of the most settled years for UK house prices over the last decade,” Halifax head of mortgages Amanda Bryden says the biggest talking point was the change to stamp duty thresholds.
“[The change] led to a rush of buyers trying to beat the deadline,” she said. “March was one of the busiest months ever for completed transactions, but this spike didn’t translate into a significant rise in prices, and activity levels soon returned to normal.”
While affordability remains challenging, Bryden points out that the overall picture is a more positive one than seen in recent years thanks to combination of above-inflation wage growth, lower interest rates and expansion of eligibility criteria from mortgage lenders.
“For those taking their first steps onto the property ladder, monthly mortgage costs as a share of income are now at their lowest level since 2022,” she said.
Echoing many of the comments of the last year, Mary-Lou Press, president of NAEA Propertymark (National Association of Estate Agents), suggested the 2025 housing market had been one of ongoing resilience.
She commented:
“Despite the challenges faced over the past year, the housing market has shown considerable robustness, even with borrowing costs remaining elevated and consumer confidence under pressure.
“Greater affordability, supported by stronger wage growth relative to house prices and improved access to higher loan-to-value lending, has played a crucial role in keeping buyers active, particularly those entering the market for the first time.
“As we look towards 2026, modest price growth appears achievable as affordability slowly improves. However, supporting a healthy housing market will require policies that strike the right balance for buyers, renters, and those providing much-needed homes.”
Halifax key facts
- The average UK house price is now £299,892 which is a new record high. This compares to £297,671 a year ago, a rise of £2,221.
- Annual house price growth was +0.7% (year to November), its weakest level since March 2024 (+0.3%). Property prices have so far fallen four times on a monthly basis during 2025, and risen on seven occasions.
- Property prices for homes bought by first-time buyers rose by +1.1% over the last year, to an average of £236,836.
- Northern Ireland saw the highest rate of annual property price inflation of any UK region or nation over the last year at +8.9%. Greater London saw average prices fall by the most at -1.0%.
- The typical UK house price has increased by +4.7% over the last three years (2022 to 2025), a rise of £13,565. This compares to a rise of +21.7% over the previous three-year period (2019 to 2022), an increase of £50,974.
2026 house price forecast based on Lloyds Banking Group’s economic projections as stated in its 2025 Q3 results: https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/investors.html
All house price figures, unless otherwise stated, taken from the Halifax House Price Index up to and including November 2025 data: https://www.halifax.co.uk/media-centre/house-price-index.html
