Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) projects the number of households in England will increase by 2.4 million (10.3%) within 10 years, with single-person households set to increase by 19.6% and households with children falling by 8.4%.
The ONS modelling projects the number of households – based on demographic trends rather than the number of homes being built – will increase from 23.5 million in 2022 to 25.9 million in 2032.
The fastest increase is projected to be seen in households in which the eldest economically active person (household reference person, or HRP) is aged 85 or over, increasing by by 42.3% from 1.1 million in 2022 to 1.5 million in 2032. Almost two thirds (280,000) of the additional households in this age group are projected to be people living alone.
One-person households in all age groups are also expected to increase, up by 19.6% by 2032. The only age group in which the number of households is expected to decrease is those in which the HRP is aged between 55 and 64, with projections showing a 2.2% decline over the same period.
Households with children are also expected to decrease, down by 8.4% by 2032, from 6.7 million to 6.1 million.
‘The growth in the number of one-person households and other households with two or more adults is driven by both an increase in population at older ages as a result of an ageing population and also a projected decline in future numbers of children’, the ONS said.
The household projections are used to give an indication of the future number of households in England and its regions and local authorities, and used for planning in areas such as housing and social care.
The local authorities projected to experience the largest growth are Tower Hamlets in London (25.9%), South Derbyshire (24.1%), and Stratford-on-Avon (20.8%). However, only 35 of the 309 local authorities are projecting an increase in the numbers of households with dependent children, while households without children are projected to increase in all but one local authority.
Commenting on the data, ONS head of population and household projections James Robards said:
“We project the formation of more than two million additional households in the decade to 2032. The majority of this growth is likely to be in older age groups, with an increasing number of people living alone. Meanwhile, the number of households with children is projected to fall over the same period. This is in line with current and future projected levels of fertility.
“These projections are not a prediction or forecast of how many houses should be built in the future. Instead, they show how many additional households would form if assumptions based on previous demographic trends in population growth and household formation were to be realised. At the local level, household change is influenced by economic development and housing policies, factors that are not included in these projections.”
All projections, including interactive tools to project change by local authority, are available at https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/householdprojectionsforengland/2022based
